Has an Expiration Date (New York: Current, 2012).
Перл о каузальности: Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie, The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect (New York: Basic Books, 2018), 5. Мы выражаем благодарность Перлу за то, что в течение нескольких лет он делился своими мыслями с Кеннетом Кукьером.
Сумма приза в Dota 2: Arda Ocal, “Dota 2’s the International Surpasses $40 Million in Prize Money,” ESPN, October 9, 2020, https://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/30079945/dota-2-international-surpasses-40-million-prize-money.
ИИ одерживает победу в Dota 2: Nick Statt, “OpenAI’s Dota 2 AI Steamrolls World Champion e-Sports Team with Back-to-Back Victories,” The Verge, April 13, 2019, https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/13/18309459/openai-five-dota-2-finals-ai-bot-competition-og-e-sports-the-international-champion.
Научная статья OpenAI о Dota 2: Christopher Berner et al., “Dota 2 with Large Scale Deep Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI, 2019, https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.06680. Подробнее на эту тему см. Ng Wai Foong, “Beginner’s Guide to OpenAI Five at Dota2,” Medium, May 7, 2019, https://medium.com/@ngwaifoong92/beginners-guide-to-openai-five-at-dota2-3b49ee5169b8; Evan Pu, “Understanding OpenAI Five,” Medium, August 12, 2018, https://medium.com/@evanthebouncy/understanding-openai-five-16f8d177a957.
Гиперпараметр «командный дух» OpenAI: Christy Dennison et al., “OpenAI Five,” OpenAI, June 25, 2018, https://openai.com/blog/openai-five.
«Нельзя ничто ни с чем связать»: T. S. Eliot, The Waste Land (New York: Boni and Liveright, 1922).
4. Контрфактические предположения
Статья Юнис Фут: Eunice Foote, “Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun’s Rays,” American Journal of Science and Arts 2 2, no. 66 (November 1856): 382–83, https://archive.org/stream/mobot31753002152491#page/382/mode/2up.
Подробности написания статьи Юнис Фут: замечания Генри заимствованы нами из Raymond P. Sorenson, “Eunice Foote’s Pioneering Research On CO2 And Climate Warming,” Search and Discovery article #70092, January 31, 2011, http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2011/70092sorenson/ndx_sorenson.pdf.html. См. также: Tara Santora, “The Female Scientist Who Discovered the Basics of Climate Science – and Was Forgotten,” Audubon, July 17, 2019, https://www.audubon.org/news/the-female-scientist-who-discovered-basics-climate-science-and-was-forgotten; Leila McNeill, “This Suffrage-Supporting Scientist Defined the Greenhouse Effect but Didn’t Get the Credit, Because Sexism,” Smithsonian Magazine, December 5, 2016, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/lady-scientist-helped-revolutionize-climate-science-I-get-credit-180961291. Also: John Schwartz, “Overlooked No More: Eunice Foote, Climate Scientist Lost to History,” New York Times, April 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/obituaries/eunice-foote-overlooked.html.
Климатические модели: Интервью Кеннета Кукьера с Инес Фун, апрель 2020.
Заявление Джеймса Хансена: James Hansen, “Hearing Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources,” US Senate, June 23, 1988, https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b5127807&view=1up&seq=48; Philipp Shabecoff, “Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate,” New York Times, June 24, 1988, https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html. Hansen, ever diplomatic, does not use the term “human activity” in his testimony but a euphemism: “larger than natural climate variability.”
Инес Фун: Renee Skelton, Forecast Earth: The Story of Climate Scientist Inez Fung (Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press, 2006). Also: National Academies of Science, “InterViews: Inez Fung,” 2011, http://nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/podcasts/interviews/inez-fung.html.
Джон, король, мышьяк: Roger Carl Schank and Robert P. Abelson, Scripts, Plans, Goals, and Understanding: An Inquiry into Human Knowledge Structures (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1977).
Злосчастный гол Манджукича: “Mandzukic Makes World Cup History with Early Own Goal,” FourFourTwo, July 15, 2018, https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/mandzukic-makes-world-cup-history-early-own-goal.
Эксперимент с регистрацией движения глаз, посвященный изучению гипотетического мышления: Tobias Gerstenberg et al., “Eye-Tracking Causality,” Psychological Science 28, no. 12 (December 2017): 1731–44.
Галилей: Manuel Montejo Bernardo, “Galileo’s Most Famous Experiment Probably Never Took Place” (original: “El Experimento Más Famoso de Galileo Probablemente Nunca Tuvo Lugar”), Conversation, May 16, 2019, https://theconversation.com/el-experimento-mas-famoso-de-galileo-probablemente-nunca-tuvo-lugar-111650. См. также: Paolo Palmieri, “ ‘Spuntar lo Scoglio Più Duro’: Did Galileo Ever Think the Most Beautiful Thought Experiment in the History of Science?” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 36, no. 2 (June 2005): 223–40.
Болезнь Паркинсона и гипотетическое мышление: Patrick McNamara et al., “Counterfactual Cognitive Deficit in Persons with Parkinson’s Disease,” Journal of Neurology and Psychiatry 74, no. 8 (August 2003): 1065–70.
Обезьяны и бананы: Yuval N. Harari, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (New York: HarperCollins, 2015).
Руссо, Джеймс, Фрейд и “The Onion” о детях: Paul Bloom, “The Moral Life of Babies,” New York Times Magazine, May 5, 2010, https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/09/magazine/09babies-t.html; “New Study Reveals Most Children Unrepentant Sociopaths,” The Onion, December 7, 2009, https://www.theonion.com/new-study-reveals-most-children-unrepentant-sociopaths-1819571187. On Freud: Alison Gopnik and Caren M. Walker, “Considering Counterfactuals: The Relationship Between Causal Learning and Pretend Play,” American Journal of Play 6, no. 1 (Fall 2013): 15–28.
Дополнительная информация о Гопник: Alison Gopnik, “A Midcentury Modern Education,” in Curious Minds: How a Child Becomes a Scientist, ed. John Brockman (New York: Vintage, 2005), 43–51. См. также аудиоинтервью и статью Michael Gordon, “The Intellectual Wonderland of Dr. Alison Gopnik,” Journey2Psychology, March 25, 2019, https://journey2psychology.com/2019/03/25/the-intellectual-wonderland-of-dr-alison-gopnik; Alison Gopnik, “How an 18th– Century Philosopher Helped Solve My Midlife Crisis,” Atlantic, October 2015, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/10/how-david-hume-helped-me-solve-my-midlife-crisis/403195/.
Элисон Гопник называет младенцев «философствующими» и «учеными»: Alison Gopnik, The Philosophical Baby: What Children’s Minds Tell Us About Truth, Love and the Meaning of Life (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2009); Alison Gopnik, Andrew N. Meltzoff, Patricia K. Kuhl, The Scientist in the Crib: Minds, Brains, and How Children Learn (New York: William Morrow, 1999).
«Зандо-тест»: Daphna Buchsbaum et al., “The Power of Possibility: Causal Learning, Counterfactual Reasoning, and Pretend Play,” research paper, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 3 65, no. 1599 (August 5, 2012): 2202–12. Also, Alison Gopnik, “Let the Children Play, It’s Good for Them!” Smithsonian Magazine, July 2012, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/let-the-children-play-its-good-for-them-130697324. Тот же рассказ содержится в Alison Gopnik, The Gardener and the Carpenter: What the New Science of Child Development Tells Us About the Relationship Between Parents and Children (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2016).
Сценарий работы с подопытными детьми: предложения, произносимые экспериментатором, слегка отредактированы ради лучшей читаемости. См. Buchsbaum et al., “The Power of Possibility.”
Элисон Гопник о том, как дети притворяются и рассуждают гипотетически: Gopnik, “Let the Children Play.”
Младенцы как «научно-исследовательский отдел» человечества: Gopnik, “What Do Babies Think?” Видео для TED.
Три отрывка из художественной литературы: Патрик Зюскинд «Парфюмер», Эрих Мария Ремарк «На Западном фронте без перемен», Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie “Americanah”.
Компьютеры как театр: Brenda Laurel, Computers as Theatre (Reading, M A: Addison-Wesley, 1993).
Гарвардский метод анализа кейсов: Todd Bridgman, Stephen Cummings, and Colm McLaughlin, “Restating the Case: How Revisiting the Development of the Case Method Can Help Us Think Differently About the Future of the Business School,” Academy of Management Learning & Education 15, no. 4 (December 2016): 724–741. См. также: Bruce A. Kimball, The Inception of Modern Professional Education: C. C. Langdell, 1826–1906 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2009). Мы выражаем искреннюю благодарность Альберто Моэлю, бывшему преподавателю Гарвардской школы бизнеса, и Роберту Мертону из МТИ за бесценные доводы за и против метода кейсов, высказанные в интервью Кеннету
